Aug 22, 2008 Aug 24, 2008 Saturday August 23, 2008
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What's Next from Apple: New iPods Sept 22, iPhone OS 2.1, iTunes 8.0
Daniel Eran Dilger Kevin Rose has been trying his hand at making broad sweeping generalizations about the next generation of iPods, but sorry, no digg. Most of his predictions are not even original, and those that are are so vague that they're really just worthless. Here's what you can really expect. Rose likes to suggest what's next from Apple, but his guesses only approach reality when they're based on leaks that occur days prior to an announcement. His flat out guesswork tends to be yet far further removed from reality, indicating that he has no special inside track on things at Apple, nor much of an imagination tempered by realistic appraisal. A month before the iPhone was unveiled, Rose predicted it would be available from CDMA providers, have a pull out keyboard, and sport two batteries, one for music and one for the phone. Of course, splitting a battery in half is not really a brilliant solution to prevent music playback from running down your phone, but the simple fact that Rose didn't know about the exclusive deal with Cingular (come on, it was Apple's only mobile partner to date) and the unlikelihood of Apple tacking on an HTC-esque keyboard makes his guesswork easy to dismiss. I had imagineered the iPhone as a web browsing iPod (“based on Nokia’s mobile contributions to Safari”) with SMS messaging features, contacts, calendar, and a camera… six months earlier. And CDMA? I recommended Apple “leave Verizon alone and partner with Cingular, TMobile, and MetroPCS using GSM technology.” The difference between my ideas and those from Rose, apart from mine being six months earlier, is that I presented mine as only reasonable ideas with some rationale behind them; Rose insisted he had special knowledge from reliable sources. Generation 6 iPods An iPhone Worth Talking About The Real iPod touch Deets. Now he's predicting new iPods. The iPod touch is supposed to get “fairly large price drops to distance itself from the $199 iPhone.” Sorry, wrong. The iPhone is only $199 in the minds of consumers. It gets a subsidy from AT&T, which is why you can't just buy one for $199 and walk out the door without signing a phone contract. The iPhone's $2,000 service contract offers plenty of distance between it and the iPod touch. The iPod touch is not possibly going to get cheaper than the iPhone for a couple reasons. First, obviously, it costs nearly as much to make. The lack of a subsidy pretty much balances out its lack of mobile radio components. Second, Apple isn't desperately trying to sell the iPod touch. It exists as a product to sell to users who can't or won't buy an iPhone because they're tied to Verizon or don't want a phone. Rose worries that the iPhone is “cannibalizing sales of the iPod,” but there's nothing more Apple would like to do than to feed every iPod user an iPhone. Sure the bonehead analysts will have another field day complaining about how there's only minor growth among iPod sales while they ignore iPhone numbers, but these guys aren't easy to reach with basic facts. Apple has been giving away the $300 iPod touch to students buying a laptop; that looks like an effort to broaden the iPhone platform. Apple wants college kids playing iPhone games and interested in creating their own iPhone software. Left to their own devices, most kids would buy the old hard drive iPod Classic because they think they need to walk around with their entire torrent library of stolen music. (Get off my lawn!) In any case, we all knew the iPod refresh was coming. I'm pretty sure they're coming on September 22. I'm also pretty sure that the 8GB iPod touch is going away, making the 16GB model the new $199 version. That outrageous price drop, facilitated by today's cheaper Flash RAM, would kill the remaining market for the hard drive-based iPod Classic, converting Apple's entire lineup to Flash RAM. Additionally, it would migrate even more iPod buyers into the installed base of iPhone App Store users and hasten the cannibalization food chain that leads toward the iPhone. The 16GB iPod touch will be sold next to the existing 32GB model, which was just released earlier this year. For that reason, I don't see a larger capacity model being introduced now. I don't see tremendous demand for carrying 64GB of music from people who are also ready to pay for 64GB of Flash. Nano 4: Zune 2007? Rose says the Nano will get a redesign that makes it look like last year's Flash RAM Zune; iLounge already predicted this a month ago, although Rose embellished his version with the idea that “the actual plastic on the outside will be curved,” presumably like a TV from the 80s. How nostalgic! I miss having a wildly distorted tube picture, almost as much as a scratchable plastic iPod screen. Oh the good ol' days. Will Apple expend significant resources to make the Nano 4 into a widescreen tall/long player and define a new 4GB hardware model to fit into a niche that is only $50 less than the new 16GB $199 iPod touch? How much room for differentiation is there under $200? Seems more likely that Apple will instead only release a cheaper version of the existing 4GB Nano that's closer to $99, leaving room for a $149 8GB Nano in between. That will pull Shuffle buyers up into splurging on a full video Nano. If you want to watch video sideways, you can get an iPod touch for $199. What kind of widescreen cinematic experience can you get with a long/tall Nano/Zune? When I reviewed the Flash Zune, one of the complaints was that half (but only half) of the controls reconfigure when you hold it sideways. Plus, existing iPod Games wouldn't work in the widescreen orientation; both the display and the controls would be messed up. On top of that, regular video playback would be forced to play back wide, and/or look bad because its stretched. Microsoft has no qualms with playing video in an odd aspect radio, but the iPod is made by Apple, which has some aesthetic boundaries that constrain its behavior. Winter 2007 Buyer’s Guide: Microsoft Zune 8 vs iPod Nano iPhone 2.1 Rose says Apple will also release “iPod touch 2.1 software, iPhone to get update very soon after.” We already all knew the iPhone 2.1 update was coming, and that it's going to be significant, and that it is due for release around the same time as the new iPods. Whether the new iPod touch will ship with it in advance of the iPhone would depend on whether iPhone-only features in the release hold it up, but Rose doesn't suggest any special knowledge or rationale behind this claim. iPhone 2.1 is supposed to usher in new GPS features and the push Notification system, but the real demand for downloading it will be that it fixes a major problem that currently causes third party iPhone apps to crash on launch and randomly when running. Apple needs to get this out quick before it blows the reputation of iPhone software stability in the minds of users. That's reason to believe that iPhone 2.1 might ship even before the new iPods, rather than the other way around. Because software developed using the iPhone 2.1 SDK won't run on iPhone 2.0.x, expect everyone to need to update their software to download a new generation of 2.1-only apps. This will be free for iPhone users, but might incur a nominal fee for iPod touch users due to accounting rules. Myths of Snow Leopard 3: Mac Sidelined for iPhone Ten Big New Features in Mac OS X Snow Leopard iTunes 8.0 Rose says iTunes 8.0 “it's a big update with new features,” but doesn't say what they are. He also says it will be “a real point upgrade” deserving the 8.0 name. However, there is little rhyme or reason to Apple's iTunes version numbering, and no real correlation between the amount features introduced and the version number increment. iTunes 2.0 added iPod support after ten months of iTunes 1.0, but iTunes 3.0 only added minor features the next year. It was replaced by iTunes 4.0 a year later, which added the Music Store and AAC support. Two years later, iTunes 5 introduced some cosmetic changes and was immediately replaced with iTunes 6.0 only a month later, without any major new features. Another year later, iTunes 7.0 arrived with a new look, video game support, and Coverflow. It has since seen loads of new features, from support for Apple TV to the iPhone to new iPods and new movie rentals, all of which were only numbered as minor updates. We've had iTunes 7.x for two years now, so iTunes 8.0 is not really ballsy prediction at this point. Of course, Apple is just as likely to skip ahead and release iTunes X. And if iTunes X isn't ready, we can might even get iTunes 7.8 and 7.9 over the next couple years. Oh my sides. With the likelihood of entirely new iPod touch or Nano models being quite low (after all, the Zune isn't going to get a refresh until late next year, and Apple isn't facing any tough competition at the moment), Apple's iPod announcement might end up more about a new iTunes than the iPod. Rose doesn't make any iTunes 8.0 feature predictions, instead jumping ahead to suggest that Apple is working to make sure Mac OS X 10.5.6 will provide support for Sony's BluRay, the competition to iTunes that nobody cares about. Hmm. Steve Jobs has so little regard for optical discs that he basically shunned iDVD last year when showing off iLife 08, but now he's going to resurrect BluRay and excite customers by including it on the company's laptops, where any resolution advantage it offers over DVD would be nearly invisible? Oh ho ho my sides. iTunes Unlimited? The rumor mill is talking about subscription music in the next iTunes. Steve Jobs has opposed subscription music since iTunes got started. He worked for years to convince the labels to let go of the dream of billing users to essentially listen to the radio. Subscription music has always revolved around outrageous DRM that requires the (historically Microsoft PlaysForSure) player to sync up and check in every month or lose its music. I've written up lots of reasons why subscription music was an awful idea that wouldn't fly. I doubt Apple will actually float it as rumored (“iTunes Unlimited” for $129 sounds awful). However, enough has changed in the last two years to reconsider how subscription music could be delivered. For starters, the iPhone and iPod touch are now wireless, so they can both stream and verify exploding media DRM. Apple's iTunes, modern iPods, Apple TV, and the iPhone also now already handle exploding DRM for movie rentals, which blew over last year without any complaint, although it doesn't look like iTunes' movie rentals have had a massive impact on the world due to their relatively high price point. Offering movie rentals appeared to be a requisite concession leading up to convincing the movie studios to agree to movie sales in iTunes. Apple could sell access to subscription music directly from the iPhone and iPod touch that worked similar to movie rentals, and the labels might even allow users to freely copy rental tracks between computers linked to the same iTunes account. Such an arrangement hasn't found mainstream popularity elsewhere, but nobody else had been able to sell music prior to iTunes either. While the rumors suggest there could be a discount for MobileMe users, it would be a lot smarter to make it part of MobileMe instead. That would limit subscribers to Apple's loyal base, easing in the system rather than exposing a brand new subscription service to ten million handheld users and 150 million iTunes users and all but promising another meltdown. At least by making it part of MobileMe, Apple could add lots of subscribers and upgrade existing subscribers to a $99 “unlimited music” additional fee. Keep in mind that all this is highly speculative. I doubt “unlimited iTunes” will fly, as the idea was not leaked but rather simply invented. How Apple Could Deliver Workable iTunes Rentals The Online Music and Movie Rental Myth Rise of the iTunes Killers Myth As Long As We're Speculating… If Apple does convert its entire iPod line to Flash players, it would make sense to incorporate a new audio codec setting that maximized the amount of songs you could copy into an 8GB player. For years, Apple's major selling point on the iPod what that it offered massive hard drive storage capacity. Now it's migrating to Flash, which is more expensive but considerably more shock resistant and suitable for a handheld computer device like the iPod touch. Working to cram more music into tighter spaces would allow Apple to make the iPod touch and iPhone more competitive against a hard drive player. AAC is already optimized for low-bitrate playback. Apple also needs to add remote functionality for controlling Apple TV to iTunes, just as you can already do via the free iPhone app. And how about direct streaming of content between iTunes, Apple TV, and the iPhone, such as for movie rentals. Currently, to get a rented movie from an iPhone to Apple TV you have to do two syncs involving a middleman iTunes PC. iTunes also needs to expand on the options for syncing media to the iPod and iPhone. In addition to syncing specific playlists, it should be able to automatically sync over a smart “Party Shuffle” mix of music that fills a specific proportion of the device, such as 50% music, 10% podcasts, and then the specific movies, TV, and audio books the user selects. Then shuffle out the listened to tracks and add new music every time it's synced. Allow users to hide songs from iTunes just as you can hide photos from your iPhoto album to simplify the view without deleting anything. Add Time Machine support so you can go back to see earlier play counts and browse your media library as it appeared in the past. Add integrated support for viewing PDFs and other QuickView document types, so you could use iTunes as a metadata-rich document browser with search and playlist features. Or give Preview an iTunes metadata document database interface. More Music Deals. Add other corporate sponsors to the Starbucks deal, so you can discover their playing music and buy tunes over their WiFi link. And isn't it about time Apple and AT&T got together and hammered out that plan to open iPhones to AT&T's hotspots? I'd debit a 99 cent WiFi access fee from my iTunes account if it were necessary. What's the point of setting up $8 per hour WiFi services for the zero people who use them? And on that tangent, how about rolling out my Ubiquitous WiFi idea for allowing other mobile users to borrow your AirPort's WiFi signal? I'd also like to see Apple get AT&T to allow users to place calls over their WiFi link as a concession for not having a functional 3G network in place yet. I also think AT&T should sell or rent AirPort base stations to its millions of broadband users, with all of them open to WiFi sharing so that iPhone users could place a freaking call and access the web at faster than EDGE speeds between now and whenever AT&T actually gets 3G rolled out. Apple also really needs to deliver some sort of central media server, possibly tacked onto Apple TV. Just add a USB hard drive and have it serve up the contents as a Bonjour-discoverable iTunes library to your local network. This would allows users to dump all the media off their laptop. And then allow WiFi sync to optionally copy fresh media to the iPhone from the central media server library. There's plenty that could be tacked onto iTunes, but the biggest new thing in the iPod announcement actually might be something entirely different than last year's iPods for cheaper and a new rev to iTunes. I'll spill that in the next article. Ten Big Predictions for Apple in 2008 Did you like this article? Let me know. Comment here, in the Forum, or email me with your ideas. Like reading RoughlyDrafted? Share articles with your friends, link from your blog, and subscribe to my podcast (oh wait, I have to fix that first). It's also cool to submit my articles to Digg, Reddit, or Slashdot where more people will see them. Consider making a small donation supporting this site. Thanks!
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BlackBerry Bold 9000 unboxed on video
Filed under: Cellphones, Handhelds We can't help but feel the BlackBerry Bold 9000's much-anticipated launch ended up being just a tad bit anti-climactic. Maybe it's a Canada thing, or maybe we're just haters. Or maybe we hate Canada. While we mull that over, you might as well have a look at CrackBerry.com's video unboxing of the new phone, complete with some comparison shots and, um, unboxing. Oh, there's an iPhone versus near the end, so don't go anywhere! Video is after the break.Continue reading BlackBerry Bold 9000 unboxed on video Read|Permalink|Email this|Comments
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The iCar is real and I have PICS!!!!
I was driving back from seeing Kung Fu Panda again with my daughter (highly recommended) when I saw it out of the corner of my eye. At first, I couldn't believe it…so I turned the car around, and THERE IT WAS. The iCar. Sitting with a “For Sale” sign on it right in front of my favorite comics book store. I whipped out my iPhone and grabbed a couple shots… And here's a shot from the front… Now, granted, it looks like its a Ford Escort covered in spray paint…BUT…it clearly says “iCar” on the side. I'm not sure if this is an Apple prototype, or just a work in progress, BUT…it is for sale. You can find two more pics of it over at MacTips.
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An interesting 3-D 'holographic' effect on an iPhone (video)
Posted by Dave MertenFolks, this is really cool. It's an illusion of a 3-D hologram—produced by animator David O'Reilly—jumping off the screen of an iPhone. The 3-D scene's perspective is warped using anamorphosis, the same technique used in Hans Holbein's painting The Ambassadors.
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Report: iPhones en route to Russia
Apple has reached a deal with the country's largest carrier, Mobile TeleSystems, that could put the iPhone on store shelves in October, according to Reuters.
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MacBook Air Update
Released by Apple yesterday: This update is recommended for all MacBook Air computers, and addresses issues with video playback and processor core idling. ★
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Create the most successful website in 60 days
Posted by Dave MertenThe Web Challenge pits developers against designers in a head-to-head challenges to create the most successful website in just 60 days. Participants compete in three categories: most unique visitors, most registered users, and most profit. The Web Challenge is currently accepting registrations for Season Two, slates to start in early...
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In Case You Missed It: Aug. 16 - Aug. 22
Your crazy life has you running in circles. You can't remember if you were supposed to pick up milk or get the dog vaccinated. Life's hectic and we understand that. For the hurried masses with vaccinated milk and a new dog, we present the hottest stories of the week. Enjoy! read more
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Satori Sudoku
Tap 6 and tap Highlight, and you can see all the places a 6 could go. Handy. For mere grasshoppers in the ancient ways of sudoku (also known as "newbies"), Satori Sudoku is helpful and forgiving. If you know what you're doing already, you can just tap an empty box, then tap a number in the keypad: once to make it a notation, twice to make it your real guess.(We'd prefer it be one tap to guess, two taps to notate, but that's a small quibble.) read more
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Microsoft: We're not "cool enough" for Mac OS X
Filed under: Humor, OS, Odds and ends If you thought the new Get a Mac ads were spot-on or funny, then you will definitely get a kick out of this. On Microsoft's Photosynth website, they admit something that we've known for years: They're not cool enough to run on Macs. "Unfortunately, we're not cool enough to run on your OS yet. We really wish we had a version of Photosynth that worked cross platform, but for now it only runs on Windows. Trust us, as soon as we have a Mac version ready, it will be up and available on our site," reads the website. Photosynth is a technology Microsoft has designed to create 3-D "worlds" with your photos. This technology is definitely cool, and we actually would like to see it come to the Mac, but the way they worded the install page just makes us laugh. Meanwhile, VMware Fusion's Pete Kazanjy told us that the warning about Photosynth not working in a virtual machine isn't quite right; he got it running just fine in Fusion 2 Beta 2, and has the video to prove it. Thanks for the tip, Nate! Read|Permalink|Email this|Comments
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Rumor: Kevin Rose goes double entendre on new iPod nanos
Silicon Valley entrepreneur and sometimes Appleologist Kevin Rose says new iPods are coming, along with iTunes 8 and Blu-ray support in Mac OS X.Read More...
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Apple expects to sell 3.5 million iPhones in Russia over next two years
Posted by Dennis SellersApple expects to sell 3.5 million iPhones in Russia in the next two years, market sources familiar with new deals being struck by Russian carriers told Reuters. Up to 600,000 iPhones have already flooded into Russia through unauthorized sales but now at least two carriers have signed an official framework...
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Kevin Rose foretells iPod Nano redesign
The Digg founder offers up a sampling of details on what could be changes in store for the iPod lineup in September.
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New 'iPhone Newsletter' available
Posted by Dave MerteniPhoneAtlas has announced a new newsletter they will be offering that delivers the latest info on iPhone applications. The iPhone Newsletter joins their other updates for Mac, Windows, and Palm applications, and is available daily or as a weekly digest.
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MacBook Air update released
Posted by Dave MertenThis update is recommended for all MacBook Air computers, and addresses issues with video playback and processor core idling.
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Ukulele ringtones available for the iPhone
Posted by Dennis SellersDan “Cool Hand Uke” Scanlan, an ukulele performer and teacher—and a Mac enthusiast since 1984—has created ukulele ringtones for the iPhone. They're his gift to the iPhone world.
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Maperture: a geotagging plugin for Aperture
Posted by Dave MertenOver the past two years, Ubermind has taken the digital photography world by storm; consistently delivering the highest quality Aperture export plug-ins available. Now, it's set to change the map once again with the release of its first edit plug-in for Aperture: Maperture.
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Access your Bonjour services from anywhere with ShareTool
Posted by Dave MertenYazsoft has released a major new application, ShareTool. Developed for Mac OS X 10.3.9 or later, ShareTool lets you access all of the Bonjour services on your home or office network from anywhere in the world securely over a 100% SSH encrypted connection. This includes iTunes Music Sharing, Screen Sharing,...
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Apple issues update for MacBook Air, warns against processor-speed tools
Filed under: Hardware, Software Update, Apple, MacBook AirLast night, Apple issued an update for the MacBook Air. With the oh-so creative title of "MacBook Air Update," this update is recommended for all users and fixes "issues with video playback and processor core idling."According to Apple, this update should not be installed until applications that modify processor operating characteristics (i.e. frequency and voltage), like CoolBook, are removed from the system. Apple says that these applications are not supported. You can download this update by visiting the Apple support download website or by opening Software Update (Apple menu > Software Update). Apple has published a support note with extra information about this update.Thanks to everyone who sent this in!Read|Permalink|Email this|Comments
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Fake iPods spotted in Spain
Neal Hoskins spotted these interesting iPod fakes in Vigo Spain last week.
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Ask TUAW: Anti-virus, upgrading RAM, syncing computers, backup, file management and more
Filed under: Features, Troubleshooting, Ask TUAWThis time in Ask TUAW we have questions on Mac anti-virus options, upgrading RAM in a white iMac, syncing a laptop and a desktop, emulating Windows file management and more.As always, your suggestions are most welcome, and questions for next week should be left in the comments. When asking a question please include which machine you're running and which version of Mac OS X, as certain answers will vary between different Macs and Tiger vs. Leopard, etc. (we'll assume you're running Leopard if you don't specify). And now, on to the questions!Continue reading Ask TUAW: Anti-virus, upgrading RAM, syncing computers, backup, file management and moreRead|Permalink|Email this|Comments
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India's Airtel claims "deadliest hackers" still can't crack its iPhone 3G
Filed under: CellphonesHey, hackers! Now that we've got the attention of millions upon millions of incredibly talented individuals, here's your next challenge. India's Airtel -- which is offering Apple's iPhone 3G at a near-stratospheric price -- has claimed that "even the most deadly hackers on the planet won't be able to crack the codes that support the iPhone's Airtel applications with rival company SIMs." Just so you know, it appears that Airtel worked with Apple to develop "operator-specific iPhone applications," which is an interesting tidbit in and of itself. But let's focus on the task at hand here, and that's proving that making ridiculous claims about impenetrability always comes back to bite ya.[Image courtesy of Zedomax, thanks Akshay]Read|Permalink|Email this|Comments
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30 Days and 30 Nights With the iPhone 3G
As I wrote in my July 15 review of the iPhone 3G, the latest version of Apple's handheld computer, the best way to judge a device like this is to use it for a while. It's been more than a month since I bought my iPhone 3G, switching from my trusty Samsung BlackJack. After more than 30 days of relying on it as a phone, e-mail reader, Web-surfing platform, information retriever and time-killer, I've found it to be both remarkable and maddening. It really is a breakthrough product.
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Movie review: 'The Rocker' sorta rolls
Posted by Dennis SellersBy Ramona Bissudo The Rocker is a riff on the much-better School of Rock. In other words, it's about chasing your hard rock dreams. Our never-say-die (and never-grow-up) “hero” is Rainn (Dwight on TV's The Office) Wilson is Robert “Fish” Fishman, a 40-ish drummer who once played for a metal...
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Kevin Rose unearths redesigned iPod nano, digs for more?
Filed under: Portable Audio, Portable Video Kevin Rose of Digg origins claims to have the scoop on the latest iPod nano. Mind you, this is the same Kevin Rose who notoriously claimed that a generation one iPhone would launch in both CDMA and GSM versions with a pair of batteries and slide-out keyboard. Uh hem. This time however, he backs up his claims with a picture of that skinnier, longer, and curvier nano pictured above -- credible because it just happens to be consistent with other rumors we've seen floating around and certainly makes sense for an Apple obsessed with tapering edges and video playback. Kev also claims that the iPod lineup will undergo price cuts to avoid the market cannibalization assumed by the lower $199 iPhone 3G purchase price. The iPod touch, which currently starts at $299 for 8GB, will see some slight cosmetic changes as well as a new 2.1 firmware update (which will obviously make its way to the iPhone). Tagging along with the iPod refresh is a new iTunes 8.0 which, according to Rose's sources, deserves the full point upgrade based on all the new features and functionality it brings. All this, "in the next 2-3 weeks." He then adds that OS X 10.5.6 is rumored to include Blu-ray support which could point to future Blu-ray options in Apple's lineup of Macs -- oh, and ponies, lots of ponies. Listen to the man say it in his own words in the video after the break.[Thanks, Matt and Alexis F.]Continue reading Kevin Rose unearths redesigned iPod nano, digs for more?Read|Permalink|Email this|Comments