Swedish Apple promotional art goes up for sale
Swedish artist Erik Saxen is looking to sell a series of Mac SE promotional paintings to collectors or museums. Painted in 1987 for the Mac SE's launch in Sweden, the six oil and mixed media paintings are in the style of other artists, but feature the Mac SE, and were used for newspaper and poster campaigns. Read More...
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Explore Carrie Bradshaw's MacBook Pro
Filed under: Multimedia, Cult of Mac, Macbook ProLike many women (and men), I'm pretty excited about the upcoming Sex and the City movie. While the show was awesome for a myriad of reasons (the humor, the fashion, the catch-phrases), what often gets overlooked is that Carrie Bradshaw was a Mac girl. From 1998 through 2004, Carrie almost always started and ended each show typing on her Mac. It makes sense; can you really imagine someone that fashion and style conscious using anything else?In season one, she used the original Powerbook G3, if I'm not mistaken (it was either Kanga or the 3400c), but she moved up to a WallStreet and then a Pismo until the series concluded its run. The official website for the movie has added a new feature, "Carrie Bradshaw's MacBook Pro" that allows fans to "explore" the virtual desktop of our favorite fashionista, answer trivia questions in "chat" windows with other SATC characters, based on clues found on the desktop, to unlock bonus content/videos and for a chance to win a Sex and the City movie poster.I'll admit, the whole thing is a total novelty, but it's still kind of cool. I especially like that the default browser on the "desktop" is Camino. It's always fun to see Apple products integrated into other promotional campaigns.(New Line Cinema, like TUAW, is ultimately part of the same media conglomerate, Time Warner).Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments
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Why Dan Frommer and Scott Moritz Are Wrong on iPhone Sales
Daniel Eran DilgerSilicon Alley Insider's Dan Frommer says Apple's announcement of reaching its million mark goal in iPhone sales three weeks early is actually bad news for Apple and is convolutedly "below plan." He also says the announcement only props up the speculative conjecture by Scott Moritz of the Street that Apple's iPhones sales are somehow woefully below expectations. They're wrong, here's why.The PremiseFrommer wrote that Apple isn't selling iPhones as fast as planned and is set to only sell around half of its 2008 goal.His premise revolves around the idea that if Apple were selling iPhones at "a constant rate," a million phones in 74 days would be five million per year. However, because it sold over a quarter of those in the opening day and a half at the end of June, Frommer calculates that sales of the remainder in the 72 days since the first of July mean that Apple is only hitting a "3.6 million annual run rate."By the end of 2008, that would only result in 5.8 million units instead of the ten million goal Apple. [Silicon Alley Insider: Apple's iPhone: 1 Million Is Below Plan]Strike One: The Run Rate Myth.The most obvious problem with that idea is the fact that devices don't sell at a constant ârun rate." Apple's iPhone sales took off at launch much faster than the original iPod due to the fact that a swell of early adopters were ready to buy it after being convinced over six months of anticipation. At the same time, many potential buyers held off on plans to buy the iPhone until they could read reviews and get a real sense of how it worked. Many were also locked into contracts with Verizon or Sprint. With only six months of advanced notice, it will still be a few more months before the majority of buyers who want an iPhone even get the chance to buy one without having to pay outrageous fees to cancel their existing mobile contract. iPhone sales are also now taking on the network effect of the iPod, as early adopters show their friends. All these factors have difficult to estimate impacts upon sales that make trying to figure a static ârun rateâ? a very simplistic and pointless exercise.However, there is another factor that simply blows the entire idea of a static ârun rateâ? out of the water. Last November, I predicted that sales of the Zune would bomb that winter because Microsoft had failed to critically examine Apple's historical sales patterns. Sure enough, the Zune was thrown against the rocks by Apple's riptide. Frommer's idea ignores that same reality by imagining that iPhone sales will schlep along at a linear pace. Had Frommer tried to calculate an "annual run rate" for the iPod based on a portion of third quarter sales at any point over the last half decade, he would never have been close to accurate. Thatâs because Appleâs iPod sales roughly triple every winter quarter.In 2002, it sold nearly as many iPods in its winter quarter as it did the first three quarters combined: 219,000In 2003, it actually sold more iPods in its winter quarter than in the first three combined: 733,000In 2004, it again sold more iPods in its winter quarter than in the first three: 4,580,000In 2005, it sold more than 4 million units every quarter, but still sold nearly three times as many in the winter: 14,480,000.In 2006, it sold more than 8 million units every quarter, and then sold over 21 million in the winter quarter.In 2007, it has maintained quarterly sales between 10.5 and 9.8 million per quarter.[Strike 3: Why Zune will Bomb this Winter]Strike Two: The Have it Both Ways Myth.One particularly annoying bit of analysts' talk about Apple's expectations is that they can't seem to decide if Apple's projections are bad because they are conservative lowballs, or if they are bad for being overly enthusiastic figures the company won't be able to reach. They often try to describe them as both, loading contempt on both sides of the scale. This makes them look very foolish. Do they think we have no memory, or are they just changing their stories back and forth in sheer desperation?Frommer tried to argue both sides at once in the same article. Recall that Apple only ever gave two iPhone sales goals: one million by the end of the first quarter of sales, and ten million by the end of 2008. In his piece, Frommer suggests Apple will only be able to sell 5.8 million iPhones by the end of 2008, based on that fallacious "run rate." That would be just over half of Apple's ten million goal. However, he then says that Apple's immediate short term goal was an unimpressive low ball, no doubt because Apple reached it three weeks early.Apple's stated goals must be a greatly frustrating logical conundrum for Frommer, because even at a ârun rate" of one million in a quarter, Apple could only ever hope to sell six million iPhones by the end of 2008, another five quarters later. No wonder he's faced with trying to say that the immediate goal was too low and the longer term one is too high! Frommer needs to stop trying to pound round facts into square holes just so they can be stacked up like bricks the way he would like them to be.Strike Three: The Market Bearing Price Myth.While Frommer and Moritz are enamored with the idea that iPhone prices could only be cut if sales were in crisis, a variety of obvious market realities don't support that simpleton idea. Between now and the end of 2008, Apple has just two holiday seasons. If it wants to dramatically exploit its historical potential for selling roughly three times as many gadgets during the winter season, it makes sense to trade off unit pricing for volume sales, even if it could perhaps sell fewer at a higher price and make more short term profits doing so.Such a strategy isn't unique. Microsoft and Sony currently lose money on their new game consoles in desperate bids to establish their gaming and HD video playing platforms. Even so, this year they both cut prices again to accelerate volume demand. Nintendo purposely aimed low to capture volume sales using a more attractive price point. Given high demand for the Wii and extremely constrained availability, Nintendo "should" seemingly raise its console price and profiteer. It hasn't. While prices are clearly linked to demand, it is a common fallacy to think that the "right price" is always the highest the market will bear. Jobs' 99 cent pricing in the iTunes store is clearly not the top price consumers will pay for downloads. Music labels are fuming that other licensees such as Verizon will collect $2.50 or more for portions of a song sold as a ringtone. Jobs wants media prices low to induce volume sales and attract buyers to the legitimate market for music and movie downloads. Labels and studios want "market pricing," in part so they can jack up the price of popular music to exploit consumers, and in part so they can exploit artists by threatening to release their work at lower tiered prices and signal to the market that their careers are over.[Universal vs Apple in the iTunes Store Contracts][Nintendo Wii vs Microsoft Xbox 360 and Sony PS3]This All Happened Before.Dial back the clock twenty years, and you'll discover that Steve Jobs also fought with Apple CEO John Sculley over the price of the original Macintosh. The desire to use an expensive but pioneering amount of RAM and a futuristic new processor had inflated the price of the Mac, but the design team was still able to deliver it at a fairly attractive price point of $1,995. Scully determined that the Mac would still sell at $2495, delivering high profits to fund splashy advertising. Nothing on the market was really similar to the Mac apart from Apple's $9,995 Lisa. VisiOn for the PC similarly cost nearly $10,000 and did far less. Sculley thought that the market would bear anything Apple might charge. Andy Hertzfeld recalled on Folklore.org that in October 1983, "Steve Jobs strode into the software area one evening, looking angry. 'You're not going to like this,' he told us, 'but Sculley is insisting that we charge $2495 for the Mac instead of $1995, and use the extra money for a bigger marketing budget. He figures that the early adopters will buy it no matter what the price. He also wants more of a cushion to protect Apple II sales. But don't worry, I'm not going to let him get away with it!'"Jobs fought Sculley over the price increase, but Sculley prevailed. Sure enough, Macs did sell well out of the gate to early adopters at the higher price, but sales then began to stall. While Jobs couldn't cut the price for the original Mac to induce wider adoption in the mid 80s, he could choose to cut the price of the iPhone early and use interest in the iPod Touch to ramp users toward the iPhone. That price cut will dramatically boost sales this winter, just as iPod price cuts and feature refreshes do every year.Apple will earn less profit on individual hardware sales of the iPhone, and may even earn slightly less money overall this quarter than it might have selling the iPhone at $599. However, a $399 iPhone will dramatically boost the company's sustainable subscriber revenues and devastatingly cut into stationary rivals like Palm and the Windows Mobile licensees, giving them little opportunity retool and strike back with copycat products.  [Price Fight - Folklore.org][Office Wars 3 - How Microsoft Got Its Office Monopoly]Strike Four: The Myth of Unlimited Availability.Another problem with idea that iPhone sales were in crisis--and that a price cut is a conspiracy to hide the truth--is that Apple sold out of iPhones in many of its retail stores throughout the first three weeks on sale.Carl Howe of Blackfriar's Communications tracked iPhone availability every day through July, and then animated the results in a movie that depicts just how constrained iPhone inventories in Apple's retail stores were. So not only did Apple meet its 94 day goal 20 days early, but it did so despite having no or few iPhones to sell in many of its stores during the first 21 days. Price isn't just related to demand, but also to supply.That also demonstrates the fallacy of Scott Moritz' assertion that Apple secretly planned to sell a million iPhones in a day and a half, and was sorely disappointed after failing to do so. How could Apple have planned on selling a million units in one day when it didn't even have a million units on the shelves of its stores during the first month? Remember, Moritz wasn't saying Apple had a delivery problem in getting enough units to stores as Nintendo is experiencing with its constrained supplies of the Wii. Instead, he tried to suggest that interest in the iPhone was far below Apple's estimates, and buyers were leaving it on the shelf like Windows Vista. The result, he claimed, was that "rivals were rejoicing."The only real rejoicing by rivals was that Moritz was volunteering to repeat the talking points handed to him by Verizon shill Roger Entner of IAG Research. Just hours before Apple announced it had sold a million units, Moritz tried to get some traction out of the idea that Apple had dropped the price in desperation to find another half million or so customers over the next three weeks. Apple isn't the typical tech company being run by visionless bean counters. It it were, it would have continued selling $600 iPhones at least through the end of September and then announced that it had sold its million. Apple had to push out new iPods in early September and fit the iPhone into the price range because next month it will be rolling out Leopard and a series of new software updates. Apple feeds the press in small, consistent, and regular feedings so reporters know what to write. If Apple were a big stupid company such as, say HP, it would parade out a mix of dozens of consumer and business products all together in one big event, and nobody would ever hear about any of it. HP did.[Why a million iPhones in 74 days is better than you think- Blackfriars][HP's marketing this week: fashionable but ineffective - Blackfriars][Unraveling Anti-Apple Panic: the iPhone Launch Success] [More on Scott Moritz and the Jim Cramer Misinformation Engine]Strike Five: It's Too Late to Deny the iPhone.The most comical part of Frommersâ analysis is that heâs trying to stuff a cat back into a bag and explain that there was never really any cat, long after everyone in the room heard the purr and pet the thing. Sorry, but the windows of opportunity to doubt the iPhone have long since closed.Real Windows Enthusiasts were aware of the need to deny the iPhone well before its release. They all chimed in with reasons why the iPhone wouldn't work, wouldn't offer what consumers want, and wouldn't sell well, all hoping that their non-stop misinformation campaigns would act as a self-fulfilling prophesy. They failed miserably.John Dvorak began his smear campaign immediately, appearing on CNBC to say that the iPhone was "trending against what people are really liking in phones nowadays, which are those little keypads.â? He explained, âThe BlackJack, the Samsung, the BlackBerry obviously pushes this kind of thing. The Palm, all of these. I guess some of these stocks went down on the Apple announcement, thinking that Apple could do no wrong. But I think Apple can do wrong, and I think this is it." Reader Jim Barrow sent in a link to a MarketWatch article from March, where Dvorak scribed a rambling diatribe entitled "Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone." He offered no factual basis for worrying that the iPhone might not work out apart from the offhanded comment that "there is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive," words which echoed Dvorak's 1984 observation that "the Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a 'mouse.' There is no evidence that people want to use these things."In April, Dvorak inflamed his 'pull the plug' rhetoric further in a TWiT podcast, where he reported to an audience of hundreds of thousands that the iPhone only delivered "40 minutes of talk time" and "the interface fouls up constantly.â? Dvorak said that his inside information on the iPhone came from a "guy at Cingular whoâs testing the product," adding, "heâs telling me confidentially and I shouldnât be telling anybody."[John Dvorak: How Wrong Can One Guy Be?][Readers Write: Don't Write About John Dvorak Anymore]It'll Be the Death of You.Dvorak was joined by Rob Enderle, who called the iPhone âdamnedâ? and ânot a very good phoneâ? at every opportunity in the months before its launch, despite not really knowing anything about it, or even ever offering any rational criticism. Instead, Enderle appealed to fantasy fears of sexual assault, murder, and the violent death of children, all of which he suggested might somehow be related to the iPhone. Unaware that a password protected iPhone--or even a unauthorized unit without a configured service plan--can still be used to make emergency phone calls, Enderle wrote about, "an emergency situation where, say, a woman was being raped and couldnât call for help because she didnât remember her iPhone password." As I understand, with a Windows Mobile phone, even if the unit crashed while trying to place the call, at least the victim could use it like a brick as a blunt weapon. Enderle also feared that being unable to take out the battery would somehow making recharging it impossible, resulting an a scenario where one might end up on âthe wrong side of townâ? with a dead iPhone and be murdered because of it. Being on the wrong side of town was apparently the source of most murders prior to the arrival of the cell phone, which somehow made it safe to be in bad neighborhoods. For those who unfazed by the prospect of one's own own grizzly death in relation to the iPhone, Enderle appealed to his readers to please think of the children, particularly the potential for their brutal decapitation in an iPhone-related collision. "If you are buying this phone for a child or another member of your family," Enderle warned, "please emphasize that entering data on this phone while driving is dangerous." In contrast, operating the slide out keyboards of an HTC brick phone, or using both hands to thumb type on a BlackBerry may or may not save your children as they drive off an embankment, but at least you'll know they didn't die at the hands of Apple's "damned" iPhone.[SCO, Linux, and Microsoft in the History of OS: 1970s][Mac OS X vs Linux: Third Party Software and Security]Pure Concentrated Evil with a Multitouch Screen.Brian Lam of Gizmodo published an impassioned plea to boycott the iPhone shortly before its launch, due to the fact that Cingular had purchased the AT&T name, a brand Gizmodo's writer correlated with "monopoly tactics" in the late 70s. Gizmodo hasn't ever called for the boycotting of Verizon Wireless, which is well known for its anti-consumer tactics and which shares just as much blood with the old AT&T as its Baby Bell sibling Cingular, nor has it ever urged the boycott Microsoft products due to "monopoly tactics." Gizmodo also failed to boycott any other GSM phones that are tied to AT&T.Gizmodo's Lam and Enderle then teamed up with Slate's David Sessions in an article purporting to expose Apple's rated battery life for the iPhone. Sessions complained about the attention the iPhone was getting, and tried to dismiss Apple's announcement of a two fold increase in battery life over what was originally advertised. Unbelievably, Sessions and friends could only explain away the iPhone's jump in talk time by crediting its glass screen, saying that "glass transmits light more efficiently than plastic." That and some witchcraft.However, all of these individuals sharply reduced their squirt rate of false information after the iPhone's successful launch. In day and a half, Apple sold 270,000 iPhones compared to the 500,000 Palm OS Treos, 1.03 million RIM BlackBerrys, and 1.51 million Windows Mobile phones that were sold worldwide in the first 90 days of 2007.Apple has since nearly matched highflying RIM in sales during July, despite being limited to a single carrier and only offered for sale in the US. At this point, denying the iPhone is like saying the Earth is flat. It might be fun to do at a Renaissance Faire, but pretending to seriously doubt reality is not a good career move unless you work for the Street--or perhaps Rupert Murdoch, as Dvorak does.[Secret iPhone Details Lost in a Sea of Hype and Hate][iPhone Sales vs Zune, Palm, RIM, Symbian, Windows Mobile]And Now: a Warning.Let it be known that anyone who publishes further misinformation or blows out similar inanity will risk being instantly awarded a Zoon on the spot. No complicated voting, no tedious application process. New Zoon nominees will be rubber stamped with the same effortless fast tracking as the ECMA declaring Microsoft technology as an international standard.In fact, Iâm going to totally Zoon Dan Frommer and Scott Moritz right now, as well as John Dvorak, Rob Enderle, Brian Lam, David Sessions, and even Roger Entner. And John Sculley. And while Iâm handing out an intellectual property construct that costs me nothing to distribute, I will also award Steve Jobs with a Zoon for the whole two month âjust kiddingâ? iPhone pricing situation, although I might take half of it back if I get a $100 coupon that doesnât force me to spend $500 to actually use it. So let that be a warning to you out there on the Tubes thinking about how to linkbait an article at the expense of the progress of technology. I have a rapid firing gun full of Zoons and Iâm not shy about cranking them out. Be sure to post any nominees.What do you think? I really like to hear from readers. Comment in the Forum or email me with your ideas. Like reading RoughlyDrafted? Share articles with your friends, link from your blog, and subscribe to my podcast! Submit to Reddit or Slashdot, or consider making a small donation supporting this site. Thanks!
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Myths of Snow Leopard 8: It's Just An OS.
Daniel Eran Dilger Apple's limited comments on Snow Leopard, the next version of Mac OS X due in about a year, have opened the playing field for rampant speculation. Here's a look at a series of myths that have developed around the upcoming release. The eighth myth of Snow Leopard: Snow Leopard is Just an Operating System Stretching the Meaning of OS. The definition of âoperating systemâ? has grown dramatically throughout the history of personal computing. In the 70s, CP/M was little more than a boot loader. In the 80s, Apple's SOS, the âSophisticated Operating Systemâ? developed for the ill-fated Apple III, introduced the novel idea of a modular driver architecture for printers, disks, and files systems. After the company returned to making Apple II models, much of SOS was salvaged in ProDOS. Apple's parallel development of the Lisa not only delivered an operating system, but also a full suite of productivity apps as part of the included Lisa 7/7 Office System software, the first consumer office suite. It would be another half decade before Microsoft bundled its Word and Excel apps with its newly acquired PowerPoint to release Microsoft Office for the Macintosh, followed by a Windows version. In a 1987 interview with Dave Ottalini, Andy Hertzfeld said, âI did the Macintosh Operating System and I was very familiar with the Apple /// and especially in the I/O system of the Macintosh, I was influenced by the Apple /// [SOS] operating system.â? The Mac's System Software in 1984 added in the concept of developer Toolbox that enabled applications to share one set of code for drawing window controls, managing print and file dialogs, and later dealing with multimedia. Apple bundled fewer apps with the Mac than the Lisa due to complaints from third party developers. Instead, the company partnered with Microsoft to deliver the Mac's key productivity apps, a move that turned out to be Apple's worst decision ever. In the late 80s, NeXTSTEP built upon the idea of the Mac Toolbox; NeXT delivered high level, object oriented frameworks and visual developer tools for rapidly building applications on top of a Unix foundation. Steve Jobs' new operating system went well beyond just booting up the machine. It included speech-enabled email messaging, DSP audio processing, PostScript color and transparency, a documentation reference library, dictionary, and even the complete works of Shakespeare. Apple III FAQ File Lisa GUI Prototypes Office Wars 1 - Claris and the Origins of Apple iWork Office Wars 3 - How Microsoft Got Its Office Monopoly The Expanding OS at Microsoft. Throughout the 80s and into the 90s, Microsoft continued to sell the simplistic DOS, largely based upon the 1970s CP/M. The company started to bundle DOS with a Mac-like environment it called Windows, which started to become popular with Windows 3.1 in 1991. Microsoft shipped Windows primarily to port its Macintosh apps to the IBM PC in order to abandon its software partnership with Apple on the Mac. After similarly backing out of efforts to work with IBM on a DOS replacement called OS/2, Microsoft next attempted to deliver Windows NT as an entirely new operating system for PC users, based loosely upon concepts from AT&T Unix-rival VMS, after Microsoft acquired Digital's VMS developer team in the late 80s. Despite touting NT in the early 90s as the next Windows, Microsoft was unable to ship NT as a replacement to DOS for mainstream users until Windows XP 2001. However, Microsoft's greatest contribution in expanding the definition of the OS came from its efforts to tie products together to leverage its monopoly DOS position in order to advance its applications business. Prior to transitioning DOS users to Windows, it told developers to target OS/2. That left a vacuum for Microsoft's own new Windows Office apps, which had not been wildly popular until then. By 1995, Microsoft was licensing Windows and Office together to PC makers as tightly integrated products, cutting out competition from third party apps. Starting in 1996, as the Windows platform began to face the threat of the Netscape Navigator web browser paired with Sun's Java, Microsoft began to insist that its acquired Internet Explorer was an integrated part of the OS, enabling it to expand its monopoly and stifle any competitive pressure. It has since tied in the Windows Media DRM architecture, and has also tightly integrated Office and the Outlook Exchange client. While sold separately, both have become very close to being an extension of Windows. The company is now working to sell Windows, Office, and the requisite OneCare security software updates as a $70 per year subscription package called âEquipt,â? basically making all consumer Microsoft software an ĂŒber-OS for Windows PC users, and again shutting out the third party developers who have been flourishing in the vibrant niche of servicing Windows' malware, viruses, and other security problems. 1990-1995: Microsoft's Yellow Road to Cairo Microsoftâs Outrageous Office Profits The Unavoidable Malware Myth: Why Apple Wonât Inherit Microsoftâs Malware Crown Five Factors Shifting the Future of Malware and Platform Security Enter Mac OS X. By the time the Mac OS X beta emerged in 2000, a desktop operating system was expected to include everything from an email and web client to audio/video playback and Office functionality. In order to compete against Windows, Apple had needed to partner with Microsoft to deliver Internet Explorer, Outlook Express, and Office on the Mac. As Mac OS X began reaching a mainstream audience in 2002, Microsoft pulled the plug on Mac development, putting Internet Explorer and Outlook Express into maintenance mode and making minimal advancement to the Mac version of Office apps. For Apple to keep up with Microsoft, it would need to develop its own applications. Mac OS X's NeXSTEP legacy gave it a leg up on putting together an application portfolio. Apple had already adapted NeXTMail, a pioneering email client, into a decent email program simply called Mail, and shipped a central Address Book and later iCal scheduling client with Mac OS X. In 2003, Apple shipped Safari as its own standards-based web client. It later shipped iChat instant messaging and other supporting applications that rounded out the OS. At the same time, Apple also began assembling a suite of multimedia apps in iLife: iTunes, iPhoto, iMovie, iDVD, and GarageBand. It has also put together an alternative to Office in iWork: Pages, Numbers, and Keynote. While both are sold separately from the OS, iLife ships for free on new Macs and iWork comes bundled as a trial that can be ordered online. Why Apple Bounced Back AppleInsider | Road to Mac OS X Leopard: Mail 3.0 The Future of the Web: Safari, Firefox and Internet Explorer Mac OS X vs Mac Office? The expansion of Mac OS X means something particularly interesting for Microsoft Office. Apple is describing Snow Leopard's key feature as being support for Exchange Server messaging, a role formerly delegated to Microsoft. That makes it the next step in the company's incremental independence from Microsoft's software on the Mac, following its banishment of IE, Outlook Express, Windows Media Player, and MSN. Snow Leopard promises to obsolesce Entourage. That being the case, it would make sense for Apple to bundle its Exchange savvy, Snow Leopard version of Mail, iCal, and Address Book into the next version of iWork for sale to PowerPC Mac users and others who don't meet the minimum requirements for Snow Leopard. That move would also directly position iWork against Office and expand iWork's user base on the Mac platform. Current Office users sometimes argue that Apple needs to allow Microsoft to maintain its monopoly position in Office to prevent Macs from being shut out of the corporate world. Businesses do prefer to train employees in one set of software; iWork does not work like Microsoft Office, forcing companies to settle on one or double their user training efforts. However, Microsoft has already began work to ensure that Office on Windows does not work or look the same as its Mac version. The Windows edition was given a Ribbon UI for marketing reasons, with a Start Button-style user interface branding to tie it into Vista. That wouldn't work on the Mac side, so Microsoft gave Mac users an oddball, clownish user interface that is neither Mac-like nor immediately familiar to Office users. Because iWork works like the rest of Mac OS X and is both consistent and intuitive, users will pick it up faster than having to learn the quirky, lipsticked pig that is Office 2008 for Mac. Even Windows users are likely to find iWork easier to figure out than Microsoft's Mac version of Office. Apple's iWork still has a ways to go in matching every feature of Office, but it offers a much stronger foundation to build upon than the current version of Mac Office. Safari on Windows? Apple and the Origins of the Web The Web Browser Renaissance: Firefox and Safari Microsoft's Scorched Earth Office Policy. Microsoft is radically changing the Office user interface on the Windows side to force companies to adopt Vista while also attempting to stave off the advance of the free OpenOffice productivity software, which is also sold by Sun as StarOffice and by IBM as Lotus Symphony. OpenOffice (and other competing suites, including some online productivity offerings) have worked hard to copy the look and feel of Microsoft's Office to facilitate adoption by companies while requiring minimal new training. Microsoft's response is to take Office 2008 in a patented new direction that competitors can't follow, a trick it used to kill competition in the DOS market when it released Windows as a product that only appeared to work with MS-DOS, and subsequently Windows 95, a product that integrated MS-DOS. With iWork, Apple didn't try to copy the old Office look and feel, which has made little progress since the late 90s. Instead, it has fleshed out its own productivity software interface with direct feedback Inspector panels; Mac OS X-native, customizable toolbars; and close integration with other OS features from advanced graphics compositing to media library browsing to native font and color selection panels. Office Wars 4 - Microsoftâs Assault on Lotus and IBM This All Happened Before. While Microsoft's strategy of driving Office into a unique, proprietary direction makes sense as a way to disrupt compatibility and familiarity with open software, it is also leaving the door wide open for Apple to enter. This is exactly what happened five years ago when Microsoft dropped Internet Explorer on the Mac, creating a vacuum that resulted in Safari, which is now teamed up with Firefox in an effort to eat into IE market share and break open Microsoft's proprietary hold over web development. With advances in Javascript and HTML5-style sophisticated web applications, Safari is now helping to erode not only IE's control over the web, but also break up Windows' hegemony in application development. MobileMe demonstrates how rich, open web applications can provide familiar email, calendar, contacts, and other features using the cross platform web rather than a proprietary development platform. While Apple hasn't announced plans to to deliver iWork apps on MobileMe yet, their current availability for the Mac not only makes up for the weaknesses of Microsoft's Mac Office 2008, but also directs attention to the Mac platform and its unique set of productivity apps. By offering Snow Leopard and âiWork 2009â? with Exchange 2007 support as well as integration with MobileMe and Snow Leopard Server's push messaging services, Apple will be able to aggressively push Mac OS X and the Mac into new territory long held hostage by Microsoft. Myths of Snow Leopard 4: Exchange is the Only New Feature Appleâs Mobile Me Takes On Exchange, Mobile Mesh Snow Leopard Server Takes on Exchange, SharePoint Cocoa for Windows + Flash Killer = SproutCore WWDC 2008: New in Mac OS X Snow Leopard Myths of Snow Leopard 1: PowerPC Support â RoughlyDrafted Magazine Myths of Snow Leopard 2: 32-bit Support Myths of Snow Leopard 3: Mac Sidelined for iPhone Myths of Snow Leopard 4: Exchange is the Only New Feature! Myths of Snow Leopard 5: No Carbon! Myths of Snow Leopard 6: Apple is Out of Ideas! Myths of Snow Leopard 7: Free?! Myths of Snow Leopard 8: It's Just An OS. Cocoa for Windows + Flash Killer = SproutCore Appleâs other open secret: the LLVM Complier Ten Big New Features in Mac OS X Snow Leopard I really like to hear from readers. Comment in the Forum or email me with your ideas. Like reading RoughlyDrafted? Share articles with your friends, link from your blog, and subscribe to my podcast! Submit to Reddit or Slashdot, or consider making a small donation supporting this site. Thanks!
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Myths of Snow Leopard 7: Free?!
Daniel Eran Dilger Apple's limited comments on Snow Leopard, the next version of Mac OS X due in about a year, have opened the playing field for rampant speculation. Here's a look at a series of myths that have developed around the upcoming release. The seventh myth of Snow Leopard: Apple will have to give Snow Leopard away for free if it lacks many marketing features. The idea of Snow Leopard being a maintenance release rather than a feature release has resulted in speculation that the company should or perhaps will have to offer it for free or at a greatly reduced cost. This is probably not the case, for a number of reasons. 1. Selling Snow Leopard for Less Would Make Selling 10.7 at Regular Price Rather Difficult. If Apple sold Snow Leopard at a steep discount as an apology for not adding fluff features, it would deflate the perceived value of Apple's operating system software. Additionally, the main group to benefit from Snow Leopard will be owners of recent, 64-bit Macs who are likely to willingly pay full price to fully unlock the power of their existing hardware. Everyone else is just as likely to just wait for Snow Leopard until they buy their next new Mac and are able to take full advantage of its advances. Snow Leopard's relatively limited audience means that any reduction in its price would have a limited impact on boosting retail sales volumes. At the same time, it would only make selling the next release of Mac OS X harder while offering less incentive for users to buy a new Mac. Keeping the retail price of Snow Leopard unchanged wouldn't help set any new sales records for a reference release of Mac OS X, but would help induce sales of new Macs, because buyers would think of new systems as including an additional $129 of software for free. 2. Apple Doesn't Actually Make Much Money From Software Anyway. Before Snow Leopard's details were released, I suggested that Apple would likely ship a full price reference release around the first quarter of 2009, if for nothing else, just to continue raising the funds needed to invest in regular new operating system development. Unlike Microsoft, Apple only earns direct profits on retail boxes of Mac OS X; it does not sell bundled licensing to other hardware makers. Microsoft's software licensing model allowed it to continue making money on sales of Windows XP for years despite minimal feature enhancements over the last half decade. Without a Microsoft-style monopoly to automatically sell its software, Apple is forced to actually deliver a product that is good enough to convince the market to go out of its way to choose to buy it. While Apple's Mac OS X doesn't generate direct licensing revenue, it does add value and differentiation to the company's machines. Apple works hard to trumpet the retail interest in Mac OS X at every release, but the painful secret that Apple itself would never advertise is that its software sales are not incredibly profitable, particularly in comparison to its Mac hardware sales. In the final quarter of last year, Apple brought in $9.6 billion, almost entirely from Mac and iPod hardware. It âonlyâ? earned $170 million from sales of Leopard in the final quarter; subsequent retail box OS sales quickly dropped down to $40 million in the next quarter of early 2008. Of course, pulling in those extra millions in software upgrades is a great bonus. However, Apple is not a software vendor; it is only making some extra cash on the side for the OS it develops primarily to sell its new hardware. As Steve Jobs once observed, Apple's OS sales are like âprinting money.â? Apple sells Mac OS X at retail only to help recoup the money it invests in developing it. If it were wildly profitable to sell the OS, Apple wouldn't be silent on the issue of licensing Mac OS X to other hardware makers. Apple hasn't even entertained the idea of licensing Mac OS X on systems in markets it does not compete in. Mac OS X exists to sell Macs. That indicates that, outside of bragging rights, Apple doesn't desperately need to work on delivering volume sales of Mac OS X at retail. Apple isn't selling Mac OS X against Vista, it's selling its Macs against Windows PCs. The only good reasons to lower the price of a product is to: induce volume sales to broaden its installed base. Apple is doing this with the new $199 iPhone 3G, as Sony has been with its subsidized PlayStation 3. However, Mac OS X (and Snow Leopard in particular) has a finite market, so again, dropping the price would only cut into revenue dramatically while generating minimal additional sales. Anyone who really wants it is going to pay whatever reasonable price is being charged. compete against direct or indirect rivals. Mac OS X has no direct rival. It has no indirect pricing pressure from Windows because nobody directly chooses one OS over the other in a shopping comparison. The retail price of Mac OS X does not add any cost to a new Mac versus a PC, and Windows considerably more expensive already anyway. Apple doesn't have to deeply discount Snow Leopard to reach customers. Why OS X is on the iPhone, but not the PC 3. Apple Would Rather You Buy A New Computer Than Give Away Mac OS X. Most of Snow Leopard's features announced so far exploit the potential of new and forthcoming hardware. The primary purpose of Mac OS X is to distinguish Mac hardware from PCs. Selling it at retail only helps Apple pull in some extra revenue from users who are not ready to buy new hardware. There are two alternatives to buying a Mac OS X upgrade at retail: not upgrading at all, or buying a new Mac. Mac OS X retail sales only compete against users' price sensitivity; it has to be priced cheap enough to sell users on buying it, because it is a largely optional purchase. Apple would happily sell users a new Mac rather than a Mac OS X upgrade. However, the company would just as happily sell full price Mac OS X upgrades to everyone it can, ensuring that those Mac users remain satisfied and more likely to buy a new Mac in the future. Deferring a $2000 computer sale to sell a high margin $129 software product is not a problem. Delaying the potential purchase of a new Mac by offering a $20 upgrade that costs $10 to distribute makes no sense. While most people who are interested in buying a new computer aren't going to delay their purchase just because they can buy the newest version of Mac OS X at retail, giving Snow Leopard away certainly wouldn't help sell new Macs in the near term, and doing that at cost or at a loss would be ridiculous. The last time Apple delivered a free reference release of Mac OS X was 10.1. That was a follow up to the original commercial debut, and mostly supplied missing features and stability fixes to help bring Mac OS X closer to parity with the classic Mac OS. Apple couldn't sell it at full price because nobody was even using Mac OS X at the time beyond a small group of early adopters. The company desperately wanted to induce adoption by any means necessary, so giving away a substantial reference release of Mac OS X made sense. It wasn't until the following 10.2 Jaguar release that Mac OS X became Apple's mainstream OS. It now makes no sense for Apple to give away its development work because it isn't in the same desperate position. Mac users who aren't going to upgrade unless the software is nearly free are not worth Apple's attention. They are likely to just steal it anyway. 4. Apple Doesn't Bother Trying to Sell to Thieves. Apple sells Mac OS X just as it retails music: it markets both products toward premium buyers at reasonable prices rather than attempting to force thieves to pay for a product they only want to steal. Microsoft failed in the music business with Windows Media because it tried to do just the opposite: force everyone to pay through the nose for expiring subscription music by using egregious DRM. Microsoft couldn't force the thieves to stop stealing, and premium customers weren't interested in being treated like thieves. Microsoft used that strategy because it has seemed to work well on the Windows PC desktop. However, that is entirely due to the company's monopoly position. Consumers don't have a choice in PC operating systems, and that lack of competition is reflected in Microsoft's predatory pricing: it sets the retail price of Windows desktop upgrades between $200 to $500 Microsoft can set a high retail price because it knows most people will just get Windows unwittingly with new hardware; the company reports that 80% of its Windows revenues come from people buying new PCs with an OEM copy of Windows on it. Relatively few people ever buy Windows at retail, which is part of the reason why the Vista launch parties Microsoft attempted to throw simply fell flat. Premium, price-insensitive users who need to buy a retail license will bite the bullet and spend whatever Microsoft charges. The company can also offer special deals to anyone that might be price sensitive, removing any pricing liquidity from the overall market. It's nice work if you can get it. Microsoft got it in part through âfirst one is freeâ? marketing that leveraged software piracy. Throughout the 90s, Microsoft tolerated piracy of Windows because it helped the company achieve market dominance. Now that it holds an overwhelming monopoly on the PC operating system market, it has started policing its software licensing with online activation and its Windows Genuine Advantage spyware. Apple's smaller market means piracy doesn't really benefit the company. Even so, it does not police Mac OS X licensing with DRM, activation procedures, or spyware because it only sells to premium customers rather than trying to tax the entire PC market. The majority of Microsoft's customers are thieves that would only pay for Windows if they had no choice. Apple's customers have voluntarily chosen to buy from the company; offering them regular advances at consistent prices allows the customer to decide if they want to upgrade or not. Microsoft's Plot to Kill QuickTime 5. Snow Leopard Will Be Worth More than $129 To Those Likely to Buy it. The key benefit Apple has marketed in Snow Leopard so far is Exchange Server support. How much is that worth, and who would pay for it? Microsoft charges Mac users $500 (a whopping $350 premium over the regular version) for the version of Office 2008 that includes support for Exchange. Why is Microsoft ripping off the customers who are using its own server software? Microsoft knows that the organizations who have chosen Exchange are not price sensitive. Those customers already pay absurd licensing costs for its server and client access licenses, so they are likely to also shell out crazy amounts of money for a slightly less awful version of the Entourage Mac email client. If Microsoft can get away with charging businesses and education users $500 for Exchange support in Office 2008, Apple will have no problem selling those same customers an overhauled operating system that adds Exchange support for Mail, iCal and Address Book for just $129. What about home users who have no need for Exchange? Outside of those that want to buy every new release, that segment of the market is unlikely to buy Snow Leopard. We know this because they largely didn't pay for Leopard. Road to Mac Office 2008: an introduction Road to Mac Office 2008: Entourage â08 vs Mail 3.0 and iCal 3.0 Who Bought Leopard? In 2009, Apple will have an opportunity to sell Snow Leopard for $129 to an installed base of around 23 million Intel Mac users. Dropping the price won't make much of a difference in how many copies it sells because people who want or need it will pay $129. The real secret is that only a minority of Mac users actually upgrade at retail. Consider the Leopard launch. Apple's $170 million in Leopard revenues reported in its debut quarter is only enough to buy 1.3 million copies at retail price. A third - a surprisingly high percentage - of retail packages were family pack versions, meaning Apple actually sold fewer boxes than that at full price. Of course, lots of those retail boxes where sold to retailers at lower wholesale prices and then marked up by the retailer. (Incidentally, Information Week's Antone Gonsalves reported that Apple sold â170 million copies of Leopard,â? which would be more than the number of Macintosh computers the company has sold over the past three decades. Several other sources repeated the same idea. âOperating systems traditionally sell very well the first quarter they are available, but then loose [sic] steam very quickly. Apple sold 170 million copies of Leopard in the first fiscal quarter, but that number dropped to 40 million last quarter, the CFO said.â?) Apple actually reported selling 2 million copies of Leopard in the first weekend. It did not continue to report how many additional copies it sold after that initial figure because Apple didn't want to highlight the fact that most of the people who bought Mac OS X in the quarter did so over the first weekend. That weekend figure also probably included shipments to stores, further padding the number with marketing muscle. More recently, the company indicated that of the 27.5 million installed base of Mac OS X users, 37% are running Leopard. That would be 10.1 million Macs running Leopard. Apple has sold roughly 4.6 million new Macs in the last three quarters with Leopard pre-installed. That means âonlyâ? 5.5 million Macs have been upgraded to Leopard. But Apple didn't earn something like $709 million by selling 5.5 million boxes for $129 or more. It only reported $210 million in total revenues in Leopard sales over first six months, and has sold less than $40 million worth of Leopard since then. That's less than $250 million in total retail software sales. Clearly, a lot of retail boxes are getting applied on multiple Macs using the family pack or are simply being installed on multiple Macs contrary to the license agreement. Big surprise: lots of people are stealing Leopard. So of the 27.5 million Macs that perhaps could be using Leopard, âonlyâ? 37% have been upgraded, and about half of those got Leopard by buying a new Mac. That's great compared to the percentages of retail software upgrades for Windows, but indicates that setting a lowball price for Snow Leopard wouldn't have a major impact on new sales; it would only leave money on the table that Apple could otherwise earn from a reasonable charge for its software work. There's another angle on the value of Snow Leopard: it's not just an operating system. The next myth will take a look. WWDC 2008: New in Mac OS X Snow Leopard Myths of Snow Leopard 1: PowerPC Support â RoughlyDrafted Magazine Myths of Snow Leopard 2: 32-bit Support Myths of Snow Leopard 3: Mac Sidelined for iPhone Myths of Snow Leopard 4: Exchange is the Only New Feature! Myths of Snow Leopard 5: No Carbon! Myths of Snow Leopard 6: Apple is Out of Ideas! Myths of Snow Leopard 7: Free?! Cocoa for Windows + Flash Killer = SproutCore Appleâs other open secret: the LLVM Complier Ten Big New Features in Mac OS X Snow Leopard I really like to hear from readers. Comment in the Forum or email me with your ideas. Like reading RoughlyDrafted? Share articles with your friends, link from your blog, and subscribe to my podcast! Submit to Reddit or Slashdot, or consider making a small donation supporting this site. Thanks!
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Russian President Medvedev pictured with MacBook Pro
Filed under: Odds and ends, Macbook ProThe Kremlin has released photos of Russian President Dimitry Medvedev holding a meeting with his aides and what appears to be a new MacBook Pro. The president also recently addressed the nation in a video blog post, where his MacBook Pro was seen in a similar meeting. The logo had been removed from the video early on, but is visible around the 1:20 mark. Other videos on the Kremlin's website show Medvedev with a variety of computers. Medvedev has previously been photographed using an iPhone, though some speculated it was a black-market acquisition. At the time the photo was taken, the iPhone was not yet available for sale in Russia. This follows in the footsteps of other high-profile world leaders using Apple products, including former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt's switch to a Mac last month. Thanks, Andrei!Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments
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Microsoft's Zune, Vista, and Windows Mobile 7 Strategy vs the iPhone
Daniel Eran Dilger What secret partner has Microsoft discovered to bail water from the deck of Zune and its Zune Marketplace music store in a last ditch attempt to take on Apple's iTunes, the iPod, and iPhone? Microsoft's own Windows Mobile, of course, with some help from Windows Vista! Who Else Will Help Zune? Certainly not Nokia, as one Zune fansite tried to suggest last week. Nokia has nothing to gain by promoting the Zune. A more credible sounding rumor, as long as we're inventing stuff, would be to instead suggest that it could be Sony Ericsson that is interested in putting the Zune software on its new phones. At least Sony has already demonstrated its complete failure at selling music on its own, and actually has a Windows Mobile phone in the works. The simpler reality is that Sony Ericsson may have no choice in the matter. Microsoft is clearly out to wed the Zune with Windows Mobile in a effort to get the two failures to prop each other up in its âI'm not dead yet!â fight against the iPhone. Microsoft is likely to make inclusion of its Zune Marketplace a mandatory feature that its Windows Mobile partners will have to swallow, just as it forced its PC licensees to bundle its Internet Explorer browser and later Windows Media Player, while prohibiting them from seeking their own bundling deals with other companies. Microsoft took quick steps to block Compaq's licensing of QuickTime, for example. Those deals were bad for HP, Compaq, Dell, and the other PC makers, bad for competition within the tech industry, and subsequently bad for consumers. However, they did enable Microsoft to use its powerful Windows monopoly position to push proprietary standards and or anti-interoperable technologies designed to expand its monopolized control, while making big money selling Windows in a market that lacked any alternatives. Will Nokia Rescue Microsoftâs Zune? Haha No. Apple in the Web Browser Wars: Netscape vs Internet Explorer Microsoft's Plot to Kill QuickTime A Lot Has Changed. This time around however, all Microsoft has to leverage is Windows Mobile, a struggling platform with little respect in the industry, now in a distant third place. Further, the technology Microsoft is trying to push is essentially its Windows Media DRM, which has already been swept up and trashed by Apple's iTunes, QuickTime, and the iPod. The dismal fate of Windows Media was sealed with the failure of PlaysForSure. The Zune's new, albeit incompatible, reincarnation of Windows Media DRM never stood any chance of making any headway. However, the most problematic part of Microsoft's strategy of pushing its Zune Marketplace store on its Windows Mobile partners is that music stores don't make money. Apple's iTunes Store is the biggest online music store on Earth, and does tremendous volumes of sales. Still, Apple reports minimal profits from the store. It recently warned its investors that it's now selling so much through iTunes that the low profit, high volume venture may have a negative impact on the company's overall profit margins. As problems go, that's certainly a nice one to have. Apple is not at all worried about turning a big profit with iTunes because it runs the store exclusively with the intent of ensuring new content for the iPod, iPhone, and Mac. That in turn sells its hardware. However, Microsoft doesn't have hardware sales to nurture. It has barely sold two million Zune units, many at fire sale prices (compared to 150 million iPods, 93 million of which have been sold since the Zune's release). It now faces impossible odds in tilting against the momentum of iTunes' rapidly spinning windmills, with no possible upside in terms of eventual music store profitability. There's simply no way that any amount of investment in the Zune Marketplace could deliver profits, because Microsoft is competing against Apple's non-profit motivation behind iTunes. Further, Windows Mobile is similarly a big loser with no potential because Microsoft has little ability to profitably license its mobile software. It's competition is the iPhone OS, which Apple develops for free to sell iPhone hardware (Microsoft does not sell its own phone hardware); RIM's mobile OS, which is also free for BlackBerry hardware; the Symbian OS, a partnership between hardware makers; and various mobile distributions of Linux, including Google's Android, all of which are also run as profitless ventures to support hardware sales (or in Google's case, service sales). The Great Google gPhone Myth Why Microsoftâs Zune is Still Failing 10 FAS: 7 - Appleâs Hardware and Dvorakâs Microsoft Branded PC Good Money After Bad. All that unpleasant reality hasn't phased Microsoft. Its executives haven't found a way to make money in consumer electronics yet, and the company's attempts just keep getting more and more expensive. Barron's recently featured the speculation of one Microsoft investor who hoped the company would spin off its hemorrhaging online services division as well as its profitless entertainment and devices unit, which includes the Zune, Xbox, and Windows Mobile. The investor calculated the value of Microsoft's other businesses (its high profit Office, Windows, and server divisions) and decided that the market wasn't assigning any value at all to Microsoft's consumer electronics and services products divisions. No wonder; they're nothing but a huge drain on Microsoft! Even so, the investor seemed to think there must be some value to obtain from selling off the black holes, citing the market value of the highly profitable Nintendo. The investor's real intent seemed to be finding a way to âdiscourage the company from overinvesting in the business.â Microsoft's stock has only appreciated by 6.3% over the last decade. Apple has appreciated 1,822.6% in the same period. Microsoft is trying to develop new markets as Apple has, it's just failing to do so. Microsoftâs Outrageous Office Profits Strength in Bundles. Microsoft has always been interested in promoting its products by using strong ones to prop up weak ones. From the start, it bound its strong Mac apps to the rather weak Windows offering to invent the PC platform, and has since tied Word and Excel to a suite of otherwise fair to marginal apps under the Office banner. Once Windows became established, the company tied in an unfinished, third-rate web browser and was able to rapidly build it into a strong competitor through market inertia. On the server side, Microsoft similarly ties in tragic products into package deals that often (but not always) enable the weak bits to gain some traction. So Microsoft is again working to stitch together its various properties to support each other, but now most all of its recent products are in flames and desperately need reinforcement. There's only so much one failure can do to support another. Even worse, Microsoft's historic strengths are no longer working. The Windows monopoly was supposed to brace up Windows Media Players, Windows Media Center, Windows Mobile, Windows Live Search, Windows Live Soapbox, and a series of other cobranded products that haven't gone anywhere. Office Wars 3 - How Microsoft Got Its Office Monopoly Office Wars 4 - Microsoftâs Assault on Lotus and IBM Why Does Microsoft Really Want Yahoo? Certifiable Failure. Windows itself is now in the throes of crisis, as the failed launch of Vista nearly two years ago has signaled the undoing of Microsoft's ability to rely on its desktop monopoly to advance failures into strength. Is Vista going to put out the Zune's flames by beating with its own flame-engulfed wings? That's part of Microsoft's current strategy, which included rebranding PlaysForSure as 'Certified for Windows Vista.' The Zune is also Certified for Windows Vista, despite not being compatible with the Certified for Windows Vista PlaysForSure. Confused? You needn't be for long, as the remnants of Microsoft's one-time strategy for creating an 'ecosystem of hardware, service, and software partners' to provide choice and freedom in the music industry is pretty much dead now. All of Microsoft's significant PlaysForSure store partners, including AOL MusicNow, MTV URGE, Musicmatch Jukebox, Wal-Mart Music, Yahoo Music, and Microsoft's own MSN Music have now unplugged their PlaysForSure stores, ironically making the brand among the least accurate names for a service ever. The remaining stores making use of PlaysForSure music, principally Rhapsody and Napster, are now on death's door. PlaysForSure video stores such as CinemaNow, which once worked with Microsoft's PlaysForSure-certified Portable Media Players no longer do. Even Amazon's UnBox service, which is supposed to sync with some devices that are PlaysForSure-certified, has not bothered to get certified under Microsoft's program. Incidentally, the failure of Yahoo Music and Microsoft's MSN Music (and the company's outrageous plan to simply unplug its customers from DRM authentication) caused CNET to wonder if Apple might be next in line to make users' music purchases unplayable, echoing the poorly conceived idea that Microsoft's Vista failure, its mobile platform incompetence, and desktop viral malware security crisis all somehow also predict a similar certain doom for Apple at some point in the future. For some reason, CNET saw no connection between the failure of Yahoo and MSN (hint: PlaysForSure), and no reason to speculate about the future of other media stores facing actual failure and likely disbanding in the near future, including Rhapsody, Napster, UnBox and Microsoft's own Zune. Nearly all of the recent DRM deactivation controversies, including Major League Baseball's, have been related to Microsoft's software, although Google decided to similarly to dump users of its paid video when it pulled the plug on Google Video last fall. Rise of the iTunes Killers Myth Forrester Research: Epic Terror of iTunes and Apple TV But Wait, What About This Ecosystem Failure Sounds Familiar? The complete failure of Microsoft's PlaysForSure hardware and software licensing program paints a damning prophetic picture foreshadowing the fate of Windows Mobile. Pundits often dance around this fact by spewing Microsoft's talking points: Window Mobile has lined up scores of hardware partners! Windows Mobile has lots of software partners! Choice is good! Oh wait, that's the same stuff they said about PlaysForSure in explaining why the iPod couldn't stand a chance once Microsoft could deliver its Windows Media Player reference designs and the Windows Media DRM that would enable PlaysForSure stores to open their doors. The only real difference between PlaysForSure and Windows Mobile is that the former was expected to prove that the Windows licensing model would work well among mobile devices, while the latter has already proven for some time now that it can't. Windows Mobile has been a snowball of failure ever since it launched a half decade ago with clumsy-looking phones running buggy, poorly architected software with abysmal battery life that makes the iPhone 3G look exceptional in comparison. Windows Mobile simply shares too much in common with the PlaysForSure failure to escape the event horizon if its blackhole. Pairing software from one vendor to hardware from another is problematic in the PC market, but completely untenable among highly integrated mobile devices. Microsoft tried to blame PlaysForSure incompatibilities on its music store and hardware partners, but the real problem was the model. Microsoft's own software problems didn't help either of course. The issue on Windows Mobile is even more significant because having functional mobile phone service is far more critical than being passively entertained by an MP3 player. Unchecked diversity among the devices of a platform is a bug, not a feature. The mantra of choice and freedom, hailed among Windows enthusiasts and homebrew hackers alike, makes for a great mission statement but in reality delivers products that just don't work. It's great to be able to compile your own servers from free and open source software, but most consumers don't want the accountability that comes along with that freedom when trying to dial 911 from their phone. For that matter they don't even want to troubleshoot the installation of a firmware update, or deal with why software designed for a tall screen looks awful on a square screen. With an integrated product like the iPhone, they can complain to Apple for a fix. With Windows Mobile, you get passed around by Microsoft from the mobile operator to the hardware maker to the third party software developer. Everyone is responsible but nobody is accountable. The Spectacular Failure of WinCE and Windows Mobile Count the Flames of Windows Mobile. And so, in terms of failing platforms, Windows Mobile is closer to PlaysForSure on the flames meter than it is to the only smoldering Vista, which is a moderate success by comparison. If attaching the Zune, Microsoft's phoenix on fire, to Vista's train wreck didn't have any impact on the relative salvageability of either, what will Windows Mobile 7 do for Zune 3 a year and a few months from now in late 2009 at the earliest? That's Microsoft's current schedule, barring any customary delays. By then, Apple will have had the iPhone in international distribution for more than a year, the App Store will be a year and a half old, and the WiFi iTunes Store will be more than two years old. What in Windows Mobile 7 will make a difference for smartphone buyers? According to Microsoft: copycat touch controls hobbled by an interface trying to look like Vista (below, and yes they did spell Internet Explorer wrong, as well as putting a space in ActiveSync), and no doubt a major new push to force Zune Marketplace media sales down the throats of Windows Mobile users in imitation of Apple. Microsoft is no Apple. The problem of course, is that the market for Windows Mobile phones is almost exclusively among corporate IT users, who don't give a rats ass about downloading music from the Zune store. So there's really little potential for cross pollination between Windows Mobile and the Zune. In contrast, Apple originally marketed the iPod and iPhone to consumers, who do buy up music to the tune of billions of tracks every year. Apple now has success to build upon, and has targeted its year-old iPhone platform toward the enterprise, with development tools, a software deployment infrastructure, and management utilities that in most cases meet or exceed what Microsoft has delivered over past decade on WinCE and Windows Mobile. On top of that, the iPhone platform has a far superior, standards-based web browser, development frameworks recognized to be easier to use than Microsoft's mobile .NET, and a core OS that is simply more stable, not to mention a user interface that's designed to look good and be simple to use rather than to match the flashy branding of a failed desktop OS. WWDC 2007: Kevin Hoffman Presents .Net vs. Cocoa The Other Problem: Windows Mobile is Going Down. Anyone banking on Microsoft's promises to deliver Windows Mobile 7 on time by the end of 2009 should also consider the company's track record in delivering Windows Mobile updates. The company initially intended to get Windows Mobile 5 out next to Longhorn [Vista] in mid to late 2004. Windows Mobile 5 was actually released in May 2005, and Vista finally popped out âofficiallyâ at the end of 2006, although one couldn't actually buy it until it was relaunched to consumers in early 2007. Even after Microsoft âreleasedâ its subsequent Windows Mobile 6 nearly a year later (based upon the same underlying WinCE 5), it took six months or more for many of Microsoft's partners to approve it and set up distribution so that users could actually get the software on their phones. In contrast, Apple releases regular iPhone updates every month or two that are always available to users immediately after their release, directly from Apple. Microsoft doesn't exactly have years of leisure at its disposal. Windows Mobile has already been hit hard by competition from the iPhone and from other rivals, including RIM in the enterprise market and Symbian internationally. That competition has resulted in Microsoft's mobile market share slipping year over year. This year, Microsoft failed to meet its frequently repeated goal of selling âmore than 20 million unitsâ through all of its various hardware partners, and instead only sold 18 million. Microsoft senior vice president Andy Lees blew off the missed goal as a ârounding error.â He cited numbers from IDC that indicated Windows Mobile had grown from 11% to just under 13% of the worldwide market for smartphones, growing faster than the overall market, and that unit sales of Windows Mobile phones have both outpaced sales of BlackBerry phones and outsold the iPhone by a factor of two. Windows Mobile misses target Oops, Microsoft Fibbed a Bit There. Canalys reports that Microsoft actually started out with a 23% share of the smartphone market in Q1 2004, which fell to 18% in Q1 2005, then down to 12% in Q1 2006, where it remained in its Q4 2007 figures. Apple ranked at 7% worldwide in Q4 2007, but that was based on sales in one market, of one model, and on one mobile provider, after only being on the market for six months. Smart mobile device shipments hit 118 million in 2007, up 53% on 2006 (Canalys press release: r2008021) If the best Microsoft can do is to claim victory for selling twice as many phones as Apple, worldwide across all of its partners despite having a many years long head start and that great ecosystem of manufacturers behind it, then it should probably just not say anything. Incidentally, with the release of the iPhone 3G, AT&T is reporting having doubled its sales volumes, not to mention all of the other new markets the iPhone 3G is now being sold in worldwide, at half the price of the original model. Within just the US smartphone market, which was Apple's only market last year and is also Microsoft's strongest market for Windows Mobile, the iPhone grabbed a 27% share in its debut third quarter of 2007, and maintained a 28% share in the fourth quarter 2007, behind RIM with 41%, but ahead of Palm at 9%. Adding up all of the Windows Mobile manufacturers selling in the US, Microsoft could only claim to have its software on 21% of the phones sold, a significant step behind Apple. Canalys, Symbian: Apple iPhone Already Leads Windows Mobile in US Market Share, Q3 2007 iPhone Grabs 27% of US Smartphone Market Also, all of these figures bundle in all of the âconvergenceâ Pocket PC mobile devices sold by Microsoft's partners, but none of the iPod touch units Apple sells, which are likely to be in well in excess of its iPhone sales. So Apple's mobile WiFi platform is actually far larger and growing much faster than market statistics companies report under their smartphone category. Anyone hoping that Windows Mobile 7 to going to reverse that trend when it arrives over a year from now is seriously delusional. Did you like this article? Let me know. Comment here, in the Forum, or email me with your ideas. Like reading RoughlyDrafted? Share articles with your friends, link from your blog, and subscribe to my podcast (oh wait, I have to fix that first). It's also cool to submit my articles to Digg, Reddit, or Slashdot where more people will see them. Consider making a small donation supporting this site. Thanks!
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Curious Stuff About the New iPods
Daniel Eran DilgerApple's iPod Event introduced a flurry of new features that raises some interesting questions and uncovers some new information on Appleâs worldwide plans to expand the iPodâs reach. The Standard iPods.The entire existing iPod lineup got a revamping, with the Shuffle simply getting new colors, the Nano getting video playback, video games, and Coverflow, and the 5.5G iPod, commonly called the "video iPod," getting more capacity, a facelift, and new official designation as the "iPod Classic."Those three products all maintained existing price points with several new features:The Video Nano, leaked under the name "Fat Nano" and called the â3G Nanoâ? by Apple, gets a 2â? 320 x 240 screen for video and Coverflow features, as well as video game compatibility with the 5G iPods. It ships with three free games: Apple's Vortex, Klondike, and iQuiz. The Nano also remains the only iPod that works with the Nike+ system.Nano is rated for 24 hours audio playback, 5 hours video playback and comes in two 6.5 mm thick versions:4 GB $149, silver8 GB $199, silver, black, red, blue, greenThose new colors match the iPod Shuffles, which remain at $79.The iPod Classic is mildly revised, thinner, and offers a new top capacity of 160 GB. This is the only remaining hard drive based iPod, and comes in silver or black. It is rated for 40 hours audio playback, 7 hours video playback, and comes in two versions:80 GB $249, silver, black, 10.5 mm thick160 GB $349, silver, black, 13.5 mm thickNew OS X iPods.Many assumed an iPod based on the iPhone would be a natural, but I originally didn't expect Apple to release one this fall. Rumors called for an âiPhone nano,â? which I argued against back in July. Rather than a new smaller iPhone, Apple released an iPod with iPhone features. [Kevin Chang, iSuppli and The iPhone Nano Myth]Called the iPod Touch, it has the same display as the iPhone, WiFi, and an even thinner case: 8 mm vs 11 mm. Its WiFi works with same Safari browser and YouTube client as the iPhone, the it delivers the same Coverflow features and multitouch photo and video playback. It also adds a new WiFi Store application for buying songs from iTunes. Oddly, the iPod Touch appears to lack the Google Maps, Weather, and Stocks widgets of the iPhone, which is a curious omission. It also lacks a Mail client, Notes, and a camera. It does have the iPhoneâs Calendar and Contacts--making the new iPod Touch a full fledged PDA.Interestingly, Apple has also added dictionaries for UK English, French, and German, and localized support for English, French, German, Japanese, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Danish, Finnish, Norwegian, Swedish, Korean, Simplified Chinese, Traditional Chinese, Russian, and Polish.Clearly, Apple plans to blow out the new iPod touch worldwide at a scale far faster than is possible with the iPhone, which is tied to service provider agreements in every location. That may also explain why Apple isnât advertising the US based stocks, weather, and Google Maps applications with the iPod Touch, although YouTube is there, and Mail should be.It appears Apple is ready to establish the iPod Touch around the world to prime the market for the iPhone. Also, thereâs no longer much reason to try to get around activation for the iPhone.Put a Mail and VoIP client for this device, and the mobile phone market may change dramatically worldwide, shifting from cellular to WiFi. At $300 - 400, this makes a very cheap Internet mobile computer. The iPod Touch also offers 8 or 16 GB of Flash storage, twice that of the largest iPhone.8 GB $299 8 mm thick16 GB $399 8 mm thickThe iPhone meanwhile, got an aggressive $200 price drop and the smaller 4 GB model was discontinued. I did not expect Apple to cut its price so soon or so much, particularly given the fact that sales appear to have surpassed all other smartphones and even tied the popular LG Chocolate feature phone.8 GB $399, 11 mm thick.This will be painful news for mobile makers already struggling to live up to comparisons with the iPhone. Motorola is banking on the RAZR 2, which is just another flip phone with slight improvements in its crappy software. Nokia demonstrated the iPhone as its own vision for the future. Things donât look good for mobile makers, or their service provider partners, particularly the CDMA2000 Sprint and Verizon in the US. The iPhone was already cheaper, now itâs no contest. Say goodnight, Palm and Windows Mobile.[Ten Fake Apple Scandals: Phony Rage About iPhone Price and Profits]The New WiFi Store Steve Jobs also demonstrated a new WiFi Store, a custom application that will be released for both the iPod Touch and the iPhone later in the month. Through the new store, you can search for songs, browse popular tracks or by genre, listen to samples and buy songs at the same $.99 price. Downloads are saved to the device and synced up to iTunes for backup. Interestingly, Apple doesnât use mobile networks to download songs; as I had pointed out, WiFi is far faster. Also, thereâs no provision for subscription music, keeping the iTunes DRM simple and consistent. No exploding media, and no prohibition from using your own music on CDs. One thing I thought would be impractical was a mobile iTunes store; Appleâs slick custom app version makes me wrong on that point. âWill iTunes sales jump if the iPhone gets a more difficult to navigate mobile interface that is slower, more complex, and more restrictive?â? As it turns out, Apple didnât add any Janus style DRM.One missing feature on the iPhone and iPod Touch is no Internet streaming music capacity. Even if this was only available over WiFi, it would make a lot of sense--as a feature, certainly not as a way to sell downloads. But since Apple makes its money selling hardware and not on selling music, adding iTunesâ Internet radio features might make sense. The reason for no offering it may be that WiFi streaming would kill the battery too quick.[Using iPhone: File and iTunes Sync Via USB, Wireless, and Over the Air]Starbucksâ Hot Spots.Apple announced a partnership with the ubiquitous Starbucks to allow devices running the WiFi Store app--including the iPod Touch, the iPhone, or a laptop running iTunes--to connect at Starbucks locations and download purchased songs at no additional charge. Starbucks will also popup its list of songs being played in the store, you can browse and buy them. The new service is to get rolled out in the thousands of Starbucks stores over the next year. Missing in the deal was any offer for free WiFi access in general, which is a bit lame. Apple offers free WiFi in its own 200+ retail stores, but it would be great to form a federation of WiFi providers that offer low cost access. Even a cheap subscription service--or free hotspot access with a purchase--would be great.What's also interesting is that the WiFi access at Starbucks locations is sold by T-Mobile. Why hasn't that company jumped to offer low cost WiFi plans for iPhone users? It's currently trying to sell WiFi VoIP phones; perhaps it should remember that it is a service provider, and offer service to phones, not try to sell more equipment. Offering a $20 HotSpot-only plan would allow T-Mobile to pickup a lot of iPhone--and now iPod Touch--users, customers it would otherwise never gain. WiFi providers now need to think past just laptop users, and cellular providers with hotspots need to think past cell phone users. While Jobs was in error to call the iPod Touch the first music player with a web browser, it will certainly have far more impact than the existing Archos devices. Jobs demonstrated a custom app for Facebook. Other recent sites geared toward the iPhone version of Safari include a client from WebEx and various third pary games and utilities.[iPhone Appr]New Ringtones in iTunes.Rather than selling static song clips for $2 like the mobile service providers, Apple appeared to ready to add ringtone syncing with the iPhone back in January; screenshots taken during the original iPhone event caught a new Ringtones tab in iTunes. Instead, the tab failed to ever appear and the iTunes contract was revised to say that songs couldn't be used as ringtones. Clearly, the genius of music executives got involved in the process.So now, the compromise is revealed. Of a select half million songs on iTunes, users will be able to upgrade a purchased song for an extra $1, and then be able to edit their own section of the song within iTunes for use as an official iPhone ringtone. There are also standalone apps for putting DIY ringtones on the iPhone, but Apple can't tell you that. Ringtones can also be used to set alarm sounds.The new version of iTunes is scheduled for availability later today.What do you think? I really like to hear from readers. Comment in the Forum or email me with your ideas. Like reading RoughlyDrafted? Share articles with your friends, link from your blog, and subscribe to my podcast! Submit to Reddit or Slashdot, or consider making a small donation supporting this site. Thanks!
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Apple introduces even SMALLER iPod Touch
Who wants a music player the size of a piece of Trident Gum? If it's you then Apple, today, released the product of your dreams. The all-new iPod shuffle has been introduced featuring a new voice technology that allows the device to talk to you, telling you all the info you need about a track in a variety of languages. Honestly, I think the thing is absurdly small. Full press release after the jump CUPERTINO, Calif., March 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — AppleÂź today introduced the all-new iPodÂź shuffle, the world's smallest music player at nearly half of the size of the previous model, and the first music player that talks to you. The revolutionary new VoiceOver feature enables iPod shuffle to speak your song titles, artists and playlist names. The third generation iPod shuffle is significantly smaller than a AA battery, holds up to 1,000 songs and is easier to use with all of the controls conveniently located on the earphone cord. With the press of a button, you can play, pause, adjust volume, switch playlists and hear the name of the song and artist. iPod shuffle features a gorgeous new aluminum design with a built-in stainless steel clip that makes it ultra-wearable. “Imagine your music player talking to you, telling you your song titles, artists and playlist names,” said Greg Joswiak, Apple's vice president of iPod and iPhoneâą Product Marketing. “The amazingly small new iPod shuffle takes a revolutionary approach to how you listen to your music by talking to you, also making it the first iPod shuffle with playlists.” iPod shuffle is based on Apple's incredibly popular shuffle feature, which randomly selects songs from your music library. And now, when you can't remember the name of a song or an artist playing, with the press of a button iPod shuffle tells you the name of the song and artist. iPod shuffle can even tell you status information, such as battery life. With the ability to hold up to 1,000 songs and the VoiceOver feature, you can now easily switch between multiple playlists on your iPod shuffle. iPod shuffle can speak 14 languages including English, Czech, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Italian, Japanese, Mandarin Chinese, Polish, Portuguese, Spanish, Swedish and Turkish. The new iPod shuffle comes in silver or black and features a sleek and ultra-wearable design with a built-in stainless steel clip. iPod shuffle is the smallest music player in the world and is incredibly easy to clip to almost anything and take with you everywhere you go. iPod shuffle features up to 10 hours of battery life.* Pricing & Availability The third generation 4GB iPod shuffle is now shipping and comes in silver or black for a suggested price of $79 (US) through the Apple StoreÂź (www.apple.com), Apple's retail stores and Apple Authorized Resellers. iPod shuffle comes with the Apple Earphones with Remote and the iPod shuffle USB cable. iPod shuffle requires a MacÂź with a USB 2.0 port, Mac OSÂź X v10.4.11 or later and iTunesÂź 8.1 or later; or a Windows PC with a USB 2.0 port and Windows Vista, Windows XP Home or Professional (Service Pack 3) or later and iTunes 8.1.
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AroundMe updates, improves
Filed under: Software, Internet ToolsAroundMe [App Store link] has always been a must have app for my iPhone. Now it has been updated to make it even better. Since it's free, having it on your phone is a no-brainer.In this latest edition you can chose a category of places, e.g., restaurants, hospitals, supermarkets and so on. You then get the usual list of destinations closest to you, along with a web site if one exists, and a phone number.If you click on the map button, you'll get a split screen with a map showing the closest 4 destinations, along with your current location. In the lower half of the screen, you get the usual list of the closest locations. This new feature is really helpful in visualizing where your destinations are, as the closest might not always be the most desirable. The 'nearby' function allows you to link to Wikipedia entries for things around you like museums or historical sites.AroundMe runs on the iPhone and iPod touch, and requires iPhone software version 2.2 or greater. It supports English, French, German, Dutch, Italian, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish and Swedish.There are other apps that have similar functions, but I keep coming back to AroundMe because it is fast, is usually very up to date via Google info, and is easy to use. Gallery: AroundMe Screen shotsTUAWAroundMe updates, improves originally appeared on The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) on Wed, 04 Mar 2009 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments
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ProcessAway Cuts Out Apple; Will They Get the Horns?
If you're a business, it's hard to plan your budget, release schedule, promotional work, etc. around an app's release in the iPhone's App Store, since you basically submit your application and then wait for Apple to get around to approving it, the time frame for which is inconsistent and not at all transparent. Well, one company has decided not to wait for Apple's approval to begin delivering their solution to their customer's, albeit in a temporary way. The makers of ProcessAway, a credit card payment app for the iPhone, have decided to begin offering their app for free to interested parties via ad hoc installation. The version distributed is a 30-day free trial that they will renew upon request until Apple approves the application and offers it for sale via the App Store. Once (if) the app is approved, customers who want to keep using the app will have to pay the full price, which is currently listed at $19.99. Podcaster tried something similar when they were originally blocked from App Store access, and Apple eventually came down on them, disallowing distribution via ad hoc install. In that case, the app had already been rejected, so it is a bit of a different scenario. RapaDev LLC, the company behind ProcessAway, claims that they aren't trying to oppose or bypass Apple, but just want to be able to get their products in the hands of customers as soon as possible, without waiting around for approval. It's unclear how Apple will react to this move. On the one hand, they definitely won't like the impression it gives that developers can choose to bypass their authority if it seems more expedient. On the other, RapaDev isn't trying to take away revenue, just offer a free trial to those interested, which should generate more sales. It just feels like something Apple would hate. We'll see. Green your IT. Save Money. Save the Planet » Register at $295 / $495 regular » Hear Microsoft, IBM, Dell and Cisco execs at GigaOM's Green:Net.